MCDM versus prediction market for technology forecasting
Ondrus, J., Gaspoz, C., Yves Pigneur, Y. Multi-criteria method versus prediction market for technology forecasting, Working paper
In this article, we present and compare two approaches for technology forecasting. These approaches are based on opposite paradigms: a management science approach (multi-criteria decision-making) and a Web 2.0 approach (prediction market). They are both intended to support technology portfolio management and assessment of new technology by an organization. To explore and compare the potential of the two approaches, we ran several field experiments. The results demonstrated that the rigor of management science and the participative aspect of the Web 2.0 approaches have complementary strengths for technology forecasting.
