Technology Foresight Using MCDM Methods
Ondrus, J., Pigneur, Y. (2013) Technology Foresight Using MCDM Methods (submitted).
In this paper, we demonstrate the successful design and use of a Foresight Support System (FSS) combining two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Traditionally, foresight activities involves Delphi, focus group, or Estimate-Talk-Estimate to collect opinions of an expert panel. Often, these techniques are not computerized and data visualization is rudimentary. Our highly-interactive FSS solves a number of inherent issues during the data collection, analysis, and results visualization processes. Despite that MCDM methods have been recommended for technology foresight, a validation with a real field experiment was still required. To evaluate our approach and FSS, we conducted a foresight exercise for the Swiss mobile payments market. Our research confirms that the use of MCDM methods supported with a computerized tool can enhance the foresight processes and results.
