Prediction market project

(2005 – 2010)

The main ob jective of the research will be to design and operate an idea market for assessing the emergence and the evolution of mobile technologies. This recent innovation suggests transferring the tools and methods for trading commodity and ’nancial futures to futures markets for ideas. Such electronic markets trade on propositions whether events will occur, have applications to decision-making, and has proven itself to be an accurate predictor of future events. The price of an idea aggregates believes that the proposition will be realized.

Doctoral thesis
Cedric Gaspoz, Predictive markets for assessing RandD portfolio (June 2010)

Research grants
Project «Idea futures market for MICS technology foresight (MarMix)» of the National Competence Center in Research on Mobile Information and Communication Systems (NCCR MICS), a center supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant number 5005-67322
(Phase II).

see a video (in French) on vimeo


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