Posts Tagged ‘prediction market’

Multi-criteria Vs. prediction market

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

Gaspoz, C., Ondrus, J., Pigneur, Y. (2008) Comparison of Multi-criteria and Prediction Market Approaches for Technology Foresight. Proc. Association Information & Management (AIM’2008), An ancillary meeting of ICIS 2008

This paper presents and compares two original ap-proaches for technology assessment and foresight based on opposite paradigm: a management science approach (Multi-Criteria Decision-Making) versus a Web 2.0 approach (Prediction Market). These ap-proaches are intended to support the management of a technology portfolio and the assessment of new tech-nology by an IT organization. In order to explore the relevance of the research, we conducted several experiments in real environments. The results demon-strated that the rigor of management science and the participation of the Web 2.0 approach are complemen-tary strengths for technology foresight. Furthermore, a framework has been established to compare the two approaches.

Prediction market in R&D

Monday, January 21st, 2008

Cédric Gaspoz and Yves Pigneur. A design science approach for developping prediction markets in a research and development community. In Proc. 41th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), volume 41. IEEE Computer Society, January 2008 (PDF).

The main objective of this research is to design and operate a prediction market inside an R&D community, to assess the emergence and the evolution of mobile technologies. To support this research, we iteratively developed and evaluated several prototypes. We intend to demonstrate the successful use of prediction markets for predicting the impact of a research activity. Furthermore, following a design science paradigm, we illustrate the design of our artifacts using build-and-evaluate loops supported with a field study, which consisted in operating the prediction markets in different settings.

Prediction market project

Sunday, January 1st, 2006

(2005 – 2010)

The main ob jective of the research will be to design and operate an idea market for assessing the emergence and the evolution of mobile technologies. This recent innovation suggests transferring the tools and methods for trading commodity and ’nancial futures to futures markets for ideas. Such electronic markets trade on propositions whether events will occur, have applications to decision-making, and has proven itself to be an accurate predictor of future events. The price of an idea aggregates believes that the proposition will be realized.

Doctoral thesis
Cedric Gaspoz, Predictive markets for assessing RandD portfolio (June 2010)

Research grants
Project «Idea futures market for MICS technology foresight (MarMix)» of the National Competence Center in Research on Mobile Information and Communication Systems (NCCR MICS), a center supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant number 5005-67322
(Phase II).

see a video (in French) on vimeo