Multi-criteria Vs. prediction market
Gaspoz, C., Ondrus, J., Pigneur, Y. (2008) Comparison of Multi-criteria and Prediction Market Approaches for Technology Foresight. Proc. Association Information & Management (AIM’2008), An ancillary meeting of ICIS 2008
This paper presents and compares two original ap-proaches for technology assessment and foresight based on opposite paradigm: a management science approach (Multi-Criteria Decision-Making) versus a Web 2.0 approach (Prediction Market). These ap-proaches are intended to support the management of a technology portfolio and the assessment of new tech-nology by an IT organization. In order to explore the relevance of the research, we conducted several experiments in real environments. The results demon-strated that the rigor of management science and the participation of the Web 2.0 approach are complemen-tary strengths for technology foresight. Furthermore, a framework has been established to compare the two approaches.
